Marine LTSS: AtlantiS (Atlantic Climate and Environment Strategic Science)
Introduction
AtlantiS is a five year (2024 to 2029) programme, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
Scientific Rationale
The global ocean is the largest part of the Earth's climate system and acts as a major buffer to climate changes resulting from human activities. By absorbing 90% of excess heat and nearly a quarter of carbon resulting from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the ocean has already substantially mitigated climate change in the atmosphere and on land. However, this service has come at a cost to the health and resilience of the ocean and by extension the people who depend on it. Significant damage has been caused to biodiversity and productivity of marine ecosystems, to shelf seas and coastal environments, and to inland areas through extremes of weather. The futures of regional climate and ecological systems depend on the response of the ocean to multiple anthropogenic stressors. Understanding and predicting the response is fundamental for sustainable development and to guide adaptation and mitigation.
The challenge is that the ocean is so large and variable that it cannot be completely and fully observed. Achieving adequate knowledge on all scales requires international coordination of observing and modelling over decades. It requires advancement in technology to expand our ability to observe beyond individual ships. It requires expanding the range of variables measured to include biogeochemistry and ecology. The opportunity now is to lead new capability to combine observations from a widening range of platforms and sensors, next-generation ocean and coupled models, and innovation in digital tools to meet the goal above. A range of national and international reviews have identified priority knowledge gaps related to natural and anthropogenically driven changes in the global ocean and the Atlantic and its shelf seas, and their impacts on marine ecosystems and human society:
- how natural and anthropogenic drivers of basin and decadal changes alter the Atlantic ecosystem, and the consequences for ecosystem functioning and services;
- the importance of ocean-shelf-coast connectivity in shaping ecosystems, biodiversity, natural hazards and impacts on society;
- the implications and feedbacks associated with climate mitigation strategies, and the need for improved assessments and advice to policy makers;
- the sensitivity and timescales of feedbacks that determine the ability of the ocean to continue to mitigate climate change by absorbing excess heat and carbon.
The aim of the AtlantiS programme is to provide evidence, tools and knowledge to support the ambition for healthy, biologically diverse and resilient marine environments, a sustainable blue economy and communities safe from natural hazards. The objectives are to strengthen the capacity of UK marine science to observe, model and predict the ocean through a step change in capability to maximise the value inherent in marine data; to transform the ocean from being data poor to data rich; to provide global syntheses of iconic climate change indicators; to lead an increase in public and government understanding of the role of the ocean in climate; and to communicate actionable knowledge effectively. AtlantiS is the continuation and development of the CLASS programme, enhancing the long-term, large-scale ocean observation systems and the ocean value-chain that contributes to key national and international programmes and priorities.
