Observation consistent warming projections for 2081-2100 from the WASP model for the RCP4.5 scenario, and the corresponding earth system properties.

(1) University of Southampton School of Ocean and Earth Science; (2) University of Liverpool Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences; (3) Australian National University Research School of Earth Sciences

This dataset contains model data from a large ensemble of 32,615 simulations of an efficient Earth system model; the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector, WASP. The results were generated following historic forcing from year 1765 to 2005, followed by the RCP4.5 scenario until year 2100. The WASP model was run 100 million times with different combinations of input parameters using a Monte Carlo approach. Each of these intitial 100 million simulations was tested against observational reconstructions of historic warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. The 32,615 simulations that matched the historic observations were extracted and form this dataset. The data provides projected global mean surface warming above preindustrial during the period 2081-2100, the simulated historic constraints used to extract the simulations (warming, ocean heat uptake and carbon fluxes over set time intervals), and the corresponding Earth system properties for each of the 32,615 historic consistent WASP model simulations. This dataset was collected as part of a joint Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and UK Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) grant reference NE/P01495X/1 - ADJUST1.5, and a NERC standard grant reference NE/N009789/1 - Mechanistic controls of surface warming by ocean heat and carbon uptake.